Which Conversion Rate?
By Craig Danuloff
What should your conversion rate measure? Is the typical idea of how many of your visitors buy too broad? Aren’t some of those folks hopelessly improbable prospects? Aren’t there other successful outcomes besides a purchase?
These are the question being discussed in a recent blog post from our friend Avinash and many other respected analysts who have left thoughts in his comments.
Avinash suggests that visitors who bounce (stay less than 10 seconds or 1 page), bots (visitors that aren’t people), and those who display some intent other than purchase, be removed from the equation – with the result of a higher conversion rate to more accurately reflect how many ‘viable’ visitors were converted.
Like others who have commented, I think that the gross calculation (outcomes/uniques) has merit both as a baseline view of the site’s performance and as a reference for comparisons between sites within or across industries. As has been suggested (including by Avinash himself) just about all of our analytical results are directional or relative and not perfectly accurate anyway – so getting hung up on the relatively low absolute value of the numbers is in many ways not worth much effort – but it does give us a reference for change and comparison.
If everyone starts subtracting swaths of visitors before they calculate the conversion rates they report it will be impossible to understand or learn anything comparatively. Numbers like those we get from shop.org, disappointing as they may be, are useful so long as we can assume we’re all measuring the same thing.
On the other hand, internally and incrementally, there is an absolute need to dig deeper and measure conversion both more narrowly and against a broader range of targets.
I also agree with John Quarto-vonTivadar that tossing bounces wholesale isn't the right solution - those occur in quantities way beyond indiscriminant clicks or an inability of the page to impact the visitor. Before you discarded them you’d have to consider the sources of these ‘bouncers’ – those coming from paid search, email replies, banner ads, and even organic search clearly had some expectation and goal when they clicked. Could a few percentages of them suffer from muscular tics and poor hand-eye coordination? Sure. But more than that and I’d really want to think about why the site/page was so non-compelling as to result in their near instant departure.
Given that bounce rates are commonly quite high (Avinash suggests 30% as typical and we’ve certainly seen them much higher) and it would make sense to segregate that problem – may I suggest a ‘Lingering Conversion Rate’ which applies only to visitors who visit at least two pages or stay at least 20 seconds?
I really like the ‘conversion pie’ Avinash created, as a way of visually expressing the fact that many visitors come with intents (or potentials) which exclude purchase. It would be great to take it further and have the ‘non convertible’ segment replaced with success and failure slices for the other intents which users manifest via their behavior. Determining and categorizing these intents and their achievement is of course quite difficult today – but I think this is an area where we need to do some work and we need our vendors to help.
For example, suppose we know that a good number of our visitors come to do pre-purchase research. Wouldn’t it be nice if we could flag users based on terms they use in their searches (‘compare’ ‘reviews’ etc.) or some combination of links clicked or pages viewed and then get associate success events with each of these segments and get both detailed and comparative reporting? I’ve mocked up the kind of report I’d love to see. (click to enlarge)
Thanks and congratulations to Avinash (again) for the original insights.



Comments
I like the fact that both of you are looking at conversion rate differently than our industry is used to thinking about it.
When you consider that people use a website as a research tool, a new metric makes sense.
If you remove all the one-page visitors, and then evaluate unique visitors based on what they do over the course of a week, or a month, or whatever timeframe is appropriate for your business, you will obtain a metric that has more relevance for your business.
Posted by: Kevin Hillstrom | November 23, 2006 2:11 PM
Good point Kevin. Maybe 'trailing conversion rate'?
Posted by: Craig Danuloff | November 23, 2006 2:17 PM