
Google Checkout is amazing for two simple reasons. First, it's incredibly easy to sign up and to use in a real live store (I tried it at Levis). Second, in a full 10 years of the ecommerce phenomenon nobody else has managed to get a universal wallet right.
On the first point, I give them credit. I've not been particularly impressed with most of the Google add-on apps. To me they've all been a transparent attempt to create stickiness for a site (and business model) that had very little at the time of their IPO. I don't particularly think minimalist software works as well as a minimalist UI. And far too many of these services have rolled out only to languish without significant (although much needed) improvements for long long periods of time.
But at the same time the company has been spitting out services (email, IM, blogging, etc.) and bribes (picassa, earth, analytics) they've also been creating a monster 'game over strategy' that must have lots of monopolists in Redmond turning green with envy.
I find the fact that despite many attempts a universal wallet hasn't been done successfully thus far fascinating. Microsoft tried. Bill Gross tried. The credit card companies tried. Even the spyware kings at Gator (now Claria) tried. I'm sure there were dozens more.
But nobody ever made it stick. And the result is we all have 20-200 password accounts at retailers across the internet, have to retype our address and credit card numbers endlessly, and favor places where we already have accounts (like Amazon) over other smaller retailers because it's just more convenient to shop using an existing account than to open an new one for every purchase.
You only have to try Google Checkout once to know this is how online commerce should work. No account sign up (at the merchant), no credit card re-entry, and you can even make a purchase and prevent the seller from getting your address (bye-bye lots of spam and 'special offers'). So the new questions become: A) can they convince enough merchants and consumers to participate, and B) what kind of evil is Google going to with your purchase history and the power to 'direct' massive percentages of the online transaction volume.
The answer to A depends a little on the technical difficulty of the integration, which I haven't read any comments on yet. (Update: Here is one experience with very basic integration.) Looking at how it works on the sample sites and knowing that the millions of online retailers out there have millions of different systems and many of these probably aren't easy to modify due to complexity or the fact that the guy who wrote it is long long gone, I think this isn't a slam dunk - but assume they'll build steadily, leveraging the Adwords relationship (and economics) and the fear that will soon set in that adwords without the little cart will either loose clicks or ranking.
On the consumer side, they're going to need those merchants pushing it, plus a long sustained campaign of both word-of-mouth and probably even actual advertising. Despite inside-the-blogosphere fawning, most Google add-ons have faired rather poorly.
The potential evil is the palpable concern across internet today. (Update: See Dave Winer on this issue.) Will they use this to drive to a CPA (revenue share) model for top segments in adwords? (Om thinks so) Will they use the aggregated purchase data to choose markets to go into with Google-direct selling vehicles? Will they punish non-checkout advertisers in ways beyond withholding the Google-checkout icon? And of course the big one, will they just make so much damn money getting paid for the advertisement and getting a % of the transaction that the rest of us have to hate them, at least a little, because they're winning so damn big?
With Google Checkout they have a system where they make money off the front (advertising) and back (transactions) of the ecommerce process. They’ll ‘own’ the masses of sellers (advertisers) and buyers (checkout’ers). They clean up and leave the messy work of selecting inventory, persuading visitors to buy, shipping and providing customer service to others. Nice work if you can get it.
Update: Some good thoughts on GC from Traffick. And BusinessWeek looks at Google's string of non-hits.